Today I am posting the video of a most interesting press conference which took place in Moscow and which was made possible thanks to the support of the Russian news agency RIA-Novosti. This press conference brought together the father of Ibragim Todashev (murdered by FBI agents in Orlando), Abdulbaki Todashev, Saurbek Sadakhanov, a Chechen lawyer, and Kheda Saratova, an independent Chechen researcher. The main organizer of this press-conference was Maksim Shevchenko, a well-known Russian Orthodox activist and journalist. I am very sorry that I do not have a subtitled or translated version of this press conference, and I apologize for the fact that I simply do not have the time do such a translation by myself. I will, however, summarize the main thesis mentioned by the participants to this press-conference: Chechens in the USA are now treated as terrorists simply for being Chechens. Ibragim Todashev, in particular, had absolutely nothing to do with the Boston Bombing. His only “crime” was that a) he was a Chechen b) he was a Muslim c) he spoke to the Tsarnaev brothers when he met them. All the participants agree that Ibragim Todashev was murdered with even a “control shot” fired at the back of his head. What is most interesting is that even though the 2nd Chechen war is only 10 years away from us, Russians and Chechens are really now standing side by side against a common enemy. The main organizer of this event, Maksim Shevchenko, is a very well known Russian Orthodox activist, a person very well known for his anti-liberal (i.e. anti-Western) views. He is also one of the most pro-Muslim Russian activists in Russia who is even often accused of being a “hidden Muslim” himself for his pro-Muslim views. This is, of course, utter nonsense. Shevchenko is 100% Orthodox in his religious views, but that does not prevent him from strongly believing that traditional Islam is a natural ally of Russia in its struggle to main its national identity. What is currently happening in Russia is this: Russian Orthodox Christians and Chechen Muslims are joining forces against the forces which have tried so hard to oppose them against each other.
Seeing Russians and Chechens patriots standing side by side me a great deal of consolation and hope. The Saker
The latest Israeli airstrikes are now the clear proof that the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency is currently losing the war against Syria. I submit that the purpose of these strikes is rather obvious: to trigger a Syrian response which would give Israel a pretext to wage what Pepe Escobar aptly called a “mini shock and awe” campaign against Syria, tipping the balance in favor of the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency. Here is how that plan would play out: If the Syrians reply by shooting a number of missiles at Israel, the Israelis will then claim “self-defense” and hit key government installations, command and control nodes, ammunition dumps, command centers, air bases, etc all as part of their “legitimate right of self defense” (nevermind that Israel is already clearly guilty of undeniable acts of war and aggression). If needed, the Israelis could also initiate an air campaign aimed at restricting the mobility of Syrian troops and armor (by claiming that anything moving on a Syrian road is a “convoy of terror weapons destined to Hezbollah” or something equally predictable). If the Syrians refrain from any retaliation, then these airstrikes would at least give the Israelis a sense of satisfaction: having failed to take on the Big Guy (Iran) they at least had the “guts” to attack Syria. This is not a pleasant option – believe me, I wish to see the Israelis pay for what they did as much as the next guy – but it is absolutely imperative for Assad not to fall into this trap. He needs to stay put and ride out the Israeli attacks.
The sad reality is that Syria is in no position to confront Israel militarily while at the same time fighting a US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency. I have said it many many many times over on this blog, the way to defeat US/Israeli style air force or cruise missile attacks is not to shoot down their aircraft or to retaliate with your own strikes, but to deny them a lucrative target. This is what the Serbs did to perfection in Bosnia, and this is what Hezbollah did to perfection in Lebanon. If the Syrians learned the lessons from the Hezbollah victory against Israel during the “Divine Victory” war, then their military should be ready to fight in a very decentralized manner, their means of communications should be extremely redundant, and their forces dispersed in a way to deny the Israelis a lucrative target. Of course, such a posture has the disadvantage of dramatically reducing the mobility of the Syrian army, in particular at the operational level, but as long as most of the war effort is carried by tactical subunits this should not be too much of a handicap. Also, unless the Syrians respond and fire back the Israelis will not have a pretext to do much more than what they are doing right now: provoking. Their provocations are extremely offensive and morally repugnant, but they are much preferable to a real Israeli close air support campaign which the Israelis could launch in support of the US/NATO/al-Qaeda insurgency with thousands of sorties. The Israeli involvement also have a beneficial side effect: it goes to prove a very simple but fundamental thesis: anybody supporting the Syrian insurgency is a “useful idiot” who, whether he understands that or nor, supports the US Empire, NATO, al-Qaeda and the Zionists. Yes, if you support the “FSA” you are in bed with Netanyahu. What the Syrians need to do now is press on their advantage on the ground. If possible, they should deny the US/NATO/al-Qaeda coalition the possibility of using any part of the Syrian territory as a conduit to bring in more weapons. This can be best done by sending in numerous special forces groups inside”FSA” controlled territory to disrupt their operations and strike at their forces. Just as the Russian only defeated the Chechen insurgency when the Russian commanders convinced the Kremlin of the importance of sending Spetsnaz forces deep inside the forests and mountains of Chechnia, the Syrians will only defeat this insurgency if they deny the Wahabis any type sanctuary.
This type of operation are very counter-intuitive for regular army officers who are used to think in terms of “fronts” or “terrain held” and who loathe the idea of sending a tiny force deep behind enemy lines. And yet, these tactics are crucial to deny the insurgency the big advantage that it enjoys when engaging regular forces: in a typical “insurgency versus regular forces” the insurgents always have the initiative, they choose when and where to engage, and they can withdraw to areas in which regular forces either cannot penetrate, or can only do that at a huge cost. Only autonomous special forces have the training needed to turn the tables on the insurgency and hunt it down in its own lairs.
Spetsnaz GRU in the mountains of Chechnia
In Chechnia the insurgency mistakenly believed that it was invulnerable to Russian attacks in the forests covered hills and mountains. However, instead of sending big bulky and very vulnerable armored forces into these mountains the Russians covertly send numerous Spetsnaz units deep inside these forests and mountains. These units attacked the Chechens mostly at night, usually destroying their hidden camps and weapons caches. Such night raids created a sense of panic amongst the Chechen insurgents who had never expected to be attacked deep inside “their own” territory. They tried to flee to Georgia and other neighboring republics only to be blocked by covertly inserted Russian Airborne troops. In a relatively short time the insurgency was crushed. Something similar needs to happen in Syria now. The Syrian military must absolutely deny the “FSA” any kind of “safe territory”. Furthermore, by sending in special forces teams they deny the Israelis the option to engage in close air support: special forces teams are undetectable and their strikes are too short and too devastating to call in close air support. By multiplying such “hit and run” operations the Syrian military could capitalize on its recent more conventional successes. I don’t know if the Syrian military does have the type of units needed to conduct such operations, but if not I am sure that Iran and Russia can send enough qualified advisers to provide them with the basic training to prepare and execute such a campaign. The Israeli aggression against Syria is a clear sign that the war is now entering into a qualitatively new phase. The Syrian armed forces have proven that they had what it take to very skillfully adapt to a conflict which turned out to be very different from the one they had trained for, and I hope that they will now again show the flexibility and skills needed to adapt to this new phase which will be decided by the correct use of special operation forces. The Saker
Back from my short trip I want to share with you a hodge-podge of observations and thoughts. Let’s begin by the Caucasus.
Two things are happening simultaneously in Chechnia, Dagestan: Wahabi insurgents have embarked on a systematic campaign of terror against non-Wahabi Muslim clerics and scholars. This is happening against a background of major losses for the Wahabi insurgency whose leaders are being killed by the Russian security forces one by one. It appears that the Wahabis are realizing that their insurgency has no chance of success and that they are lashing out against those whom they perceive as “traitors” and “collaborators”, in particular in the ranks of the Islamic clergy and scholars. This confrontation between the Wahabi insurgency and the local Muslims is rooted in the historical fact that the type of Islam the Wahabis advocate has no historical roots in the region. Historically, the type of Islam practiced in the Caucasus is a mix of moderate Sunni Islam heavily laced in with pre-Islamic tribal traditions, Sufism and modern secular influences. Sadly, many local Muslim clerics and scholars did not take enough security measures to protect themselves and they paid the price for presenting an easy, “soft”, target. I can only hope that the local Muslim communities will now realize the full extend of the threat against it and take the same type of protection measures government officials and security force commanders have taken. The skills to do so are available locally so all is needed is a political decision to do so.
I am sad to say that from what I can see the Muslim community worldwide is still studiously looking away from the Caucasus and not paying any attention to the plight of its fellow-Muslims there. When Muslims were killed by Russian “kuffar” the Muslim world was vocal in its touching sympathy and support for the Chechen and Dagestani people (regardless of the immense list of atrocities committed against everybody by the insurgents!). Now that it is quite clear that these very same Muslims are being terrorized by Saudi-backed Wahabis, the Muslims suddenly find themselves looking elsewhere. I find that very discouraging.
Libya. Predictably, NATO is now going fully into the so-called “widening” phase of its Bosnia/Kosovo-like campaign against Libya: its destroying more and more of the socio-economic infrastructure of the country. When I watch the images of the bombs falling on Tripoli I always flash back on the bombs being dropped on Belgrade. In those tragic days I was amongst the few who were trying to sound the alarm about the fact that the breaking of international law by the US Empire in its war against Serbia and Montenegro over Kosovo was setting a precedent and would have terrible repercussions later. I was telling my Muslim friends, “hate the Serbs all you want (if you have to), but realize that sooner or later you will be on the receiving end of these very same policies”. But just as in Chechnia, the Muslim world was mostly steered up into an anti-Serb frenzy (carefully induced by the US propaganda machine) and almost nobody seemed capable of thinking more than just one step ahead of the “stop the genocide! stop the genocide!” hysteria. We now know that no “genocide” took place in either Bosnia or Kosovo (or Chechnia, for that matter), but it’s too late now. Bosnia and Kosovo have turned into the black hole of Europe: with a mix of abject poverty, corruption, mafia thuggery, Wahabi Islamists and US military personnel overseeing it all. Welcome to the New World Order folks! In Chechnia, Russia finally pushed back, but at a terrible price not only for Russian, but even more, so for the Chechen people. What will now happen with Libya?
Frankly, I don’t know. My feeling is that Gaddafi is no Milosevic. Oh, by the way, if I remember correctly: was Gaddafi not the ONLY Muslim leader who oppose the NATO war in Bosnia and Kosovo? I am not sure of that, but I think I recall that he did see through the propaganda.
Anyway – Gaddafi must know and understand what NATO has in store for him and his country: a cell in the Hague for him and his sons, and a Kosovo-like enslavement of Libya. When I hear that he wants to fight to death I tend to believe him. More importantly, as far as I know the Libyan population is highly educated and probably understands what is going on. As for the resistance, which I supported initially, it must come to realize that it has been hijacked, co-opted and manipulated and find the courage to do exactly what Akhmad Kadyrov and so many other Chechen leaders did when they realize that they were being used by the US Empire: break-off its alliance with CIA/MI6 controlled puppets, choose “country over politics” and find some arrangement with Gaddafi who has made innumerable offers of peace, negotiations and democratic elections. This will be tough, of course, and I sympathize with the plight of those who loathe Gaddafi himself (as I personally do), but what is at stake now is the very survival of Libya as an independent country. Furthermore, for all the bad things that Gaddafi has done, he has also done quite a few things right and all these socio-economic achievements will turn into dust if the international bankers and Zionists get their teeth deep int the Libyan economy, which they will if their newly acquired CIA/MI6 puppets ever seize power.
Yet again, the Muslim world appears to be studiously looking away from these painful realities. Are they afraid of the almighty USA? Or do they feel duped as they were in Kosovo and simply cannot fess up to it? Or do they hate Gadaffi more than they love Libya? I frankly don’t know, but I notice that even Hezbollah, to my great sadness, has nothing to say about all this (more about Hezbollah’s strange silences below)
Egypt. The military junta running Egypt has committed the “crime of crimes”, at least in my opinion. It has re-closed the Rafah border. Check out this exclusive report by DemocracyNow!:
I find that totally sickening and I can only hope and pray that the Egyptian people will rise again to stop this abomination.
By the way, there is something which the opposition could already do to help. It could declare that it has begun making lists of the names of all government officials (military, police, border guard, ministries, etc.) who in any way have collaborated with this obscene policy of betrayal of the Palestinian people of Gaza and that as soon as when the opposition comes to power these officials will all be charged with treason and tried in court. Such a threat could go a long towards dampening the zeal of the many folks involved in the implementation of this policy.
Sadly, besides the outraged people of Gaza, the Muslim world seems to be strangely silent on this topic also. Again, I do not understand why.
Syria now. This will be my first post about Syria. I did not post about the situation there until now not because of any strong political leanings of mine, but simply because I did not feel that I understood what is going on there. I still don’t understand, by the way, but I feel that there are a few things which I would like to share with you.
First, I have no way of knowing whether the majority of the Syrian population support Assad’s regime or not. Unlike Iran, Syria did not have an election, and there is no way to know whether the opposition or the regime have a democratic legitimacy. What we do know is that the Syrian regime under Hafez al-Assad did crush popular uprising with extreme violence several times in the past. Assad Jr. is probably as ruthless has his father. Besides, I also personally loathe Assad junior, Bashir, whom I always saw as a covert collaborator of Israel and the United States (on whose behalf he tortured “rendered” suspects!) and whom I strongly suspect of being involved in the murder of Imad Mugniyeh (as does Mugniyeh’s widow, I would add). But when I see the very same forces which are attempting to conquer Libya throwing their support behind the anti-Assad insurgency it gives me pause. Folks like Eltsin, Milosevic, Saddam, Gaddafi or Assad are loathsome and brutal dictators, no doubt, but I simply do not believe that replacing them with a NATO Viceroy is making things better. There is “bad” and there is “worse” and “worse” is often a lot worse than “bad”. Or, to loosely paraphrase Hegel, quantitative changes can eventually result in qualitative changes. Why is it that some many political figures and otherwise astute observers stubbornly refuse to see that?
Which brings me to Hezbollah.
For a self-professed “Hezbollah groupie” and “Nasrallah fanboy” like myself it is rather painful to have to admit that I am becoming frustrated, if not disappointed, with Hezbollah. Why?
First, Hezbollah had absolutely nothing to say about the alleged (and probably fictional) murder of Osama Bin-Laden in Pakistan.
Second, Hezbollah is not sounding the alarm about the USraelian Empire’s successful attempt to co-opt and control the (initially spontaneous and legitimate) opposition to Gaddafi.
Third, Hezbollah is also remaining mostly silent or, even worse, supportive of the Assad regime in Syria.
Of course, I understand the political reasons for all this. In the first case, Hezbollah does not want to alienate Sunnis, in the second case Hezbollah still remembers the kidnapping and murder of Musa al-Sadr by Gaddafi, and in the third case Hezbollah feels that it cannot come out against a regime whom it largely, but not exclusively, depends on for weapons and support. But are these ethically valid reasons or are these considerations of petty politics?
My secular readers will not understand this, but I hold religious leaders to a far higher standard than their secular counterparts. If I am not mistaken, Hassan Nasrallah’s clerical title is Hojatoleslam (also transcribed as Hujjat al-Islam from Arabic), meaning the “proof of Islam”. In other words, Hassan Nasrallah is a “proof of the surrender to God”. Can any person – in particular a Shia cleric – upon whom such a noble title is bestowed really choose to remain silent out of petty political considerations?
I hope that I am not offending my fellow “Hezbollah groupies” and “Nasrallah fanboys” or, more seriously, my Shia readers. But I have to call it the way I see it and Hezbollah’s heavy silence baffles, frustrates and disappoints me.
If I am wrong, which I would readily admit, please tell me why.
All I can say in my defense is that this is my personal blog. Not only because I control it, but because I share my personal feelings, doubts, fears, frustrations, with the rest of you here. This blog is not the antiseptic, polished and always politically correct editorial page for a corporate newspaper.
So I will say it frankly here: I am deeply disturbed and disappointed by the seeming inability of so many Muslim leaders to speak up and dare to say a very unpopular truth (sometimes even in a personal correspondence).
All the evil in this world is based on two ingredients: violence and lies. And the latter is far more important than the former. In the past I have already vented my frustration and disappointments with Muslims when they resort to what I call a knee-jerk “my Ummah, right or wrong” kind of reaction to a far more complex and nuanced reality. But we are not talking about wars between Muslims and kuffar here, we are talking about tragedies which are taking place very much inside the Ummah, and yet even Hezbollah is silent, all its attention focused on Bahrain (which, no doubt, fully deserves that attention, but not exclusively).
So I would like to directly address my Muslim readers here and ask: can you explain what is going on here? What am I missing? Are you personally comfortable with the deafening silence which bothers me – an Orthodox Christian – so much?
One of the more exotic technologies for tracking deeply submerged submarines consists of using a satellite based radar to measure the tiny elevation of the water surface of the ocean above an otherwise well hidden and silently moving submarine. Some less exotic techniques including detecting wakes, tiny differences in water temperatures, magnetic fluctuations and many other “indirect” methods. What I propose to do today is something similar: to try to look at some possible signals of what might be happening hidden deep inside the Russian security establishment.
Doku Umarov
As some of you might have recalled, I have regularly covered what I saw as a government campaign to defund, “reform” (read: shut down) and otherwise weaken the Russian elite military forces. A Spetsnaz brigade was dismantled, the military intelligence service (GRU) was almost reduced to a Department of the General Staff, the 106th Airborne Division came close to being simply eliminated, and a number of top officers were either rather “mysteriously died” or resigned. Things got totally out of control when the Airborne Forces almost officially demanded the sacking of Defense Minister Serdyukov.
Magomedali Vagabov
And then things suddenly seemed to cool down, and an eerie silence covered this entire “front”. There are now some signs that things have actually begun to change.
First, the Russian security services have embarked on a major campaign to capture or eliminate the leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus.
Even before the bombing of the Domodedovo airport in Moscow several top leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus (such as Magometali Vagabov) were killed in the course of several special operations. Following the Domodedovo bombing (which was officially claimed by the self-styled “First Emir of the Emirate of the Caucasus” Doku Umarov) the campaign to track
Abdullah Kurd
down and kill the Wahabi leaders suddenly intensified and achieved major successes. Many top officials of the Wahabi insurgency were killed including “Moganned” (a Saudi national), “Abdullah Kurd” (a Turkish national), Israpil Validjanov, Asker Djapuev and even Astemir Mimishev – the assassin of the Mufti of the Kabardino-Balkar Republic. All of them were killed in the time period between April and May of this year.
The one still not caught, although his death has been announced many times only to be proven wrong is Doku Umarov himself. Umarov, arguably the very last “historical” leader of the Chechen insurgency alive, has skillfully managed to escape many times from some very close calls, but there is no doubt in my mind that the noose around him is now extremely tight and that he will be killed very soon.
Asker Djapuev
As for the insurgency itself, it is reduced to two basic types of operations: high visibility “symbolic” terrorist attacks such as the one in Domodedovo or small, local level, assassinations of junior policemen and murders of “collaborators”. The single best indicator of the real capabilities of the insurgency is that it is handled only by Ministry of Internal Affairs forces and not by the military (the exception being, of course, the killing of top level commanders which is typically a join effort of the FSB and the GRU with logistical support from local police forces).
Astemir Mamishev
Bottom line: the insurgency has been defeated, most of its leaders are dead, and the scope and nature of Wahabi terrorism in the Caucasus and south Russia has been brought down to something similar to what the IRA was in the years preceding the Good Friday Agreement.
Of course, there is a Presidential election coming up in Russia and Medvedev has been challenged for many of his policies (betrayal of Iran, his “reforms” of the military, Russia’s vote in the UN on Libya and many others) and, just like Obama, he needs to market himself as a “strong leader”. This is particularly true considering that Prime Minister Putin is far more popular than Medvedev.
Moganned
There are also signs that Medvedev is openly courting elite Russian military forces. First, there was the absolutely unprecedented move to award the Order of Kutuzov to the 45th Independent Special Operations Airbore Regiment as a whole (rather than to one individual). Not only that, but this year the 45th Independent Special Operations Airborne Regiment was invited to the Victory Parade on Red Square.
Something even more amazing happened on the same day: for the first time ever the traditionally super-secret GRU Spetsnaz forces were also represented during the Victory Day lead by a Spetsnaz Colonel who was identified by name (!). Considering the fact that Spetsnaz GRU forces are still normally
Israpil Validzhanov
under order never to even show their faces, having them participate in a parade transmitted worldwide is an absolutely amazing, I would say earth-shattering, departure from the usual practice.
Medvedev also showed his support for the Special Forces of the Internal Ministry during a visit to the HQ of the “Rys'” Spetsnaz unit which included a lengthy conversation with the officers of this elite unit.
Clearly Medvedev is going out of his way to make all the political moves needed to show his support for the previously neglected security forces. His efforts actually go beyond the symbolic.
Spetsnaz GRU sniper in Ossetia
The 106th Guard Airborne division has recently received a lot of high tech gear including UAVs, reconnaissance vehicles and ATV, top of the line night vision gear, encryption communications, advanced computerized command and control networks, etc. A division which was almost disbanded is now receiving lavish care from the Kremlin.
Of course, this could all be a short lived, one-time, effort in order to achieve some political gains. But this might also signal that Medvedev has finally accepted the fact that he cannot indefinitely oppose the security establishment and that a typically Russian backstage deal was made between the Kremlin and the security and key military forces. I am inclined to believe that the latter is true.
45 Airborne Spetsnaz on Victory Day
Whatever may be the case, this is clearly good news for Russia in general and for the Caucasus in particular. After two decades of absolute horror and chaos, there is a least a non-irrelevant possibility that some normalization and recovery might take place. The combined action of the security forces and the Kremlin’s campaign to support non-Wahabi Islam are slowly bringing about some results. What is now needed is another double struggle: to bring in economic growth to the Caucasus and a merciless crackdown at the local corruption which is absolutely horrendous, even by Russian standards.
Spetsnaz “Rys'” officer
Medvedev has embarked on a massive campaign to fight corruption in Russia. This campaign is centered on two mains tracks: a massive overhaul of the hideously corrupt and incompetent police force combined with an equally ferocious crackdown on corrupt government officials. The faces of sacked police generals are now paraded on TV on an almost daily basis and the Kremlin is using the crafty pretext of a “re-attestation” of *all* the Internal Ministry official (from the rank and file to the very top commanders) to sack anybody who is perceived as corrupt or incompetent. The Russian public in understandably viewing all this with a lot of skepticism, or even cynicism, and only time will show if all these efforts are for real or not. The key test, in my opinion, will be if the Kremlin will be willing (and able) crackdown on the all-powerful Mafia and gangs of thugs which have prospered in the Caucasus for many decades.
Spetsnaz GRU Col. Tkachuk on Victory Day
The problem of the Wahabi insurgency cannot be separated from the problem of the south Russian mob – the two are twin brothers, closely linked at many levels. For example, one of the reasons why only central “elite” Spetsnaz forces have been able to eliminate so many Wahabi leaders is not that such operations require an amazing amount of military skills, but simply because the central Spetsnaz forces have no connections to the local mob or the local police (which, for all practical purposes is one and the same).
This is an ambitious multi-tired program for sure, but one which is vital for the stability and security of all of Russia. If it takes a looming Presidential election to finally make it happen, then this is a good thing.